Where is the bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)?
While the possibility exists that the bottom has already been reached, on-chain analyst James Check suggests that a true market bottom may only be established following a significant capitulation event.
According to Check, this could require Bitcoin to decline to the $65,000 range—a level he refers to as the “true market mean,” representing the average cost basis for active investors. Speaking on the TFTC podcast, Check noted that at this price point, investors would likely start to feel the weight of unrealized losses, with even long-term holders, some of whom have held Bitcoin for five years, potentially facing underwater positions. Interestingly, this level is closely aligned with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which has a similar cost basis of around $67,500.
What happens after capitulation?
While Check anticipates further declines from $65,000, he sees strong support forming around the $49,000-$50,000 range—levels significant for marking the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and representing a $1 trillion market cap for the cryptocurrency. He added that a drop as low as $40,000 seems unlikely unless a global recession were to unfold.
Also, Check pointed to Bitcoin’s prolonged period of “consolidation” in 2024—months spent fluctuating between $50K and $70K—as having established a strong foundation of support for future price stability.